Market overview
A global framework driving structural demand.
Article 6 of the Paris Agreement sets out the rules for international trade in greenhouse gas emission reductions — and regulation is steadily converting climate commitments into compliance demand.
The challenge
A warming planet, a widening removal gap
Global average temperatures have risen by approximately 1.5°C above the mid-20th-century baseline. Today, roughly 2.2 gigatonnes of CO₂ per year are removed from the atmosphere — primarily through reforestation, wetland restoration, soil carbon sequestration, direct air capture and bioenergy with carbon capture. Achieving net zero by 2050 is estimated to require around 10 gigatonnes of removals per year.
Closing that gap requires capital, at scale, deployed into high-integrity projects.
Global temperature anomaly vs mid-20th-century baseline. Indicative, based on published climate datasets.
The commitment
Net zero is now a mainstream economic policy
In 2015, 196 parties signed the Paris Agreement, each outlining nationally determined contributions (NDCs) to reduce emissions and contain global warming well below 2°C. Since then, net-zero targets have spread across governments and corporations worldwide.
of global GDP is covered by commitments to achieve net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050.
Global carbon credit market (compliance & voluntary), total traded volume. Public market projections.
The market
A rapidly growing industry
The global carbon credit market is projected to reach approximately US$2.7 trillion by 2028, up from close to US$1.2 trillion in 2022. This expansion is driven by growing demand for carbon offsets — tradable instruments that allow companies and governments to compensate for greenhouse gas emissions within regulated frameworks.
Demand drivers
Regulation is converting pledges into compliance demand
Article 6 — ITMOs
Internationally Transferred Mitigation Outcomes under Article 6.2 of the Paris Agreement enable countries to trade emission reductions toward their NDCs.
CORSIA
The Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation requires airlines to offset the growth of their international flight emissions.
Carbon tax regimes
Carbon taxes are in force across more than twenty European countries as well as Canada, Japan, Singapore, South Korea, South Africa and Colombia — with offset mechanisms in several regimes.
Emissions trading systems
ETSs worldwide are progressively integrating high-integrity offsets and removals, including the EU Carbon Removal & Carbon Farming Certification Framework (CRCF) and UK-ETS developments on carbon capture and storage.
National measures add further demand: France’s Climate and Resilience Law, for example, requires airlines to offset 100% of their domestic flight emissions.